Every estimate we made, settled, with the closing line.
last 30 daysEvery prop Propper's model picked, scored correct or incorrect once the games ended, with the odds when we logged it and the odds at puck drop (the closing line). No money is bet: this is a paper record.
Correct–incorrect
345–2711
3130 settled · 74 push or void
Paper P&L
-40.0u
1370.51u staked
Correct rate
11%
of decided picks
1370.51u stakedpaper return -3%better than the closing line 18% · CLV -1.0%
Record by ticket type
hit rate · posted tickets
By shape
singles, same-game, multi-game
Fill is Correct, tick is Model chance
Singles
565 logged200–291 · 74 push or void
Model chance
Correct
gap
44%
41%
−3 pts
within chance (−7 pts to +1 pt)
+21.3u on 729.3u paperpaper return +3%CLV +0.9%
Same-game parlays
1872 logged108–1764
Model chance
Correct
gap
8%
6%
−2 pts
correct less often than Model chance
+14.0u on 468.0u paperpaper return +3%CLV -1.3%
Multi-game parlays
693 logged37–656
Model chance
Correct
gap
9%
5%
−3 pts
correct less often than Model chance
-75.2u on 173.3u paperpaper return -43%CLV -1.5%
Day by day
paper P&L and correct rate for each game day
Singles only
- Propper's model-40.0u · 11% correct · CLV -1.0%
| Day | Picks | Correct | P&L | CLV | Running |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 28 | 113 | 11% 12–101 | -16.04u | -0.3% | -40.0u |
| Tue, Oct 27 | 203 | 11% 23–180 | +0.97u | -1.4% | -23.9u |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 87 | 14% 12–75 | -2.36u | -1.3% | -24.9u |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 110 | 20% 22–88 | +29.02u | -0.8% | -22.5u |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 199 | 6% 12–187 | -27.46u | -1.4% | -51.6u |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 71 | 6% 4–67 | -22.31u | -0.5% | -24.1u |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 224 | 8% 17–207 | -23.25u | -1.1% | -1.8u |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 67 | 15% 10–57 | -6.95u | -1.1% | +21.5u |
| Tue, Oct 20 | 206 | 8% 17–189 | +1.33u | -1.4% | +28.4u |
| Mon, Oct 19 | 106 | 11% 12–93 | -15.51u | -0.8% | +27.1u |
| Sun, Oct 18 | 74 | 8% 6–66 | -21.04u | -0.0% | +42.6u |
| Sat, Oct 17 | 200 | 12% 24–174 | -1.53u | -0.9% | +63.6u |
| Fri, Oct 16 | 80 | 4% 3–77 | -21.74u | -0.9% | +65.2u |
| Thu, Oct 15 | 209 | 7% 14–195 | -43.23u | -1.4% | +86.9u |
| Wed, Oct 14 | 63 | 13% 8–55 | -3.31u | -0.7% | +130.1u |
| Tue, Oct 13 | 258 | 9% 24–234 | +3.94u | -1.3% | +133.4u |
| Mon, Oct 12 | 73 | 8% 6–67 | -17.51u | +0.2% | +129.5u |
| Sun, Oct 11 | 68 | 12% 8–60 | -9.94u | -1.4% | +147.0u |
| Fri, Oct 9 | 101 | 16% 16–85 | -3.36u | -1.2% | +157.0u |
| Thu, Oct 8 | 188 | 15% 28–160 | +104.92u | -0.5% | +160.3u |
| Wed, Oct 7 | 78 | 15% 12–66 | +13.74u | -1.1% | +55.4u |
| Tue, Oct 6 | 184 | 16% 30–152 | +23.05u | -1.2% | +41.7u |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 42 | 22% 9–32 | +6.39u | -0.5% | +18.6u |
| Sun, Oct 4 | 26 | 27% 7–19 | +10.76u | -0.7% | +12.2u |
| Sat, Oct 3 | 18 | 28% 5–13 | +1.41u | -0.9% | +1.5u |
| Fri, Oct 2 | 17 | 25% 4–12 | +0.04u | +0.6% | +0.0u |
| Thu, Oct 1 | 65 | void | +0.00u | – | +0.0u |
| Day | Propper's model | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Picks | Correct | Paper P&L | CLV | |
| Wed, Oct 28 | 113 | 11% 12–101 | -16.04u | -0.3% |
| Tue, Oct 27 | 203 | 11% 23–180 | +0.97u | -1.4% |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 87 | 14% 12–75 | -2.36u | -1.3% |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 110 | 20% 22–88 | +29.02u | -0.8% |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 199 | 6% 12–187 | -27.46u | -1.4% |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 71 | 6% 4–67 | -22.31u | -0.5% |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 224 | 8% 17–207 | -23.25u | -1.1% |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 67 | 15% 10–57 | -6.95u | -1.1% |
| Tue, Oct 20 | 206 | 8% 17–189 | +1.33u | -1.4% |
| Mon, Oct 19 | 106 | 11% 12–93 | -15.51u | -0.8% |
| Sun, Oct 18 | 74 | 8% 6–66 | -21.04u | -0.0% |
| Sat, Oct 17 | 200 | 12% 24–174 | -1.53u | -0.9% |
| Fri, Oct 16 | 80 | 4% 3–77 | -21.74u | -0.9% |
| Thu, Oct 15 | 209 | 7% 14–195 | -43.23u | -1.4% |
| Wed, Oct 14 | 63 | 13% 8–55 | -3.31u | -0.7% |
| Tue, Oct 13 | 258 | 9% 24–234 | +3.94u | -1.3% |
| Mon, Oct 12 | 73 | 8% 6–67 | -17.51u | +0.2% |
| Sun, Oct 11 | 68 | 12% 8–60 | -9.94u | -1.4% |
| Fri, Oct 9 | 101 | 16% 16–85 | -3.36u | -1.2% |
| Thu, Oct 8 | 188 | 15% 28–160 | +104.92u | -0.5% |
| Wed, Oct 7 | 78 | 15% 12–66 | +13.74u | -1.1% |
| Tue, Oct 6 | 184 | 16% 30–152 | +23.05u | -1.2% |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 42 | 22% 9–32 | +6.39u | -0.5% |
| Sun, Oct 4 | 26 | 27% 7–19 | +10.76u | -0.7% |
| Sat, Oct 3 | 18 | 28% 5–13 | +1.41u | -0.9% |
| Fri, Oct 2 | 17 | 25% 4–12 | +0.04u | +0.6% |
| Thu, Oct 1 | 65 | void | +0.00u | – |
Correct counts picks that were right or wrong; a push or a void is neither and sits out of the rate. Units are paper P&L: a unit is the fixed stake the record uses, and no money is bet. CLV is closing line value: how far the odds moved after we logged the picks, positive when the market moved our way.
Paper P&L over time
running total in units, by game day
No game day has settled yet. The line starts with the first one.